Don’t underestimate the Padres in the West

San Francisco is off to a good start for the first time in several years and the best part is that they are playing much better than the Dodgers. Los Angeles has invested a lot of money over the season break and it is still credited with the first chance to win the World Series, but the odds are increasing sharply. Bookmakers have probably realize the fact that they did a mistake by overestimating the Dodgers and they are now trying to cut down on potential losses.

PadresLos Angeles remains a dangerous opponent in the playoffs, but for the time being it is the Giants that lead the division and have the best chance of making the postseason. They won three games in a row and expect an easy victory over the Padres, who are once again struggling at the bottom of the division. The fact that San Francisco has home pitch advantage and will start with one of the best starting pitchers is also a good explanation for why the odds have dropped sharply.

Bumgarner is one of their most reliable players and he has an excellent record against San Diego, but a closer look at his earned run average reveals a disturbing fact. He allowed more than three runs per match against their division rivals, while San Francisco doesn’t have a much better percentage. They won eight of the games played at the AT&T Park and were particularly dominant against Cleveland, a team that allowed 14 rounds.

Sweeping the Indians was indeed a surprising and inspiring performance, but this doesn’t mean that San Diego will simply surrender. They turn to a less experienced pitcher, but Tyson Ross exceeded expectations this season and won 2/5 decisions. He would’ve done much better, hadn’t it been for the awful support given by the Padres, so tonight he will be depending once again on his teammates playing offensive roles.

As far as punters are concerned, there is no value in backing the hosts to prevail tonight, but it would be worth taking a chance with San Diego. Place a small sized back on a surprising victory for the visiting team, or simply sit back and enjoy the game without investing a dime.